Why is Japan debt not a problem?
Composition of Debt: A significant portion of Japan's national debt is held domestically, primarily by Japanese citizens and institutions. This reduces the country's vulnerability to external economic shocks and allows the government to continue borrowing at relatively low interest rates.
For more than two decades, Japan's national debt has floated above 100% of its GDP. In fact, as of the second quarter of 2022, Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio was 226%. In other words, Japan has been able to maintain a very high level of debt for decades.
By 2008, China had overtaken Japan as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. But over the past decade, Japan reclaimed its top spot. Like China, Japan also sells lots of goods to the U.S. and then invests much of the proceeds in U.S. Treasurys, explained Insider.
At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023.
Japan slips into a recession and loses its spot as the world's third-largest economy. TOKYO (AP) — Japan's economy is now the world's fourth-largest after it contracted in the last quarter of 2023 and fell behind Germany.
First, Japan's abundant household assets, which contribute to the low and stable JGB yields, have for long financed Japan's debt. Second, Hoshi and Ito [1] argue that if private savings decline and government debt continues to increase, debt will reach the level of private sector savings.
Around 70% of Japanese government bonds are purchased by the Bank of Japan, and much of the remainder is purchased by Japanese banks and trust funds, which largely insulates the prices and yields of such bonds from the effects of the global bond market and reduces their sensitivity to credit rating changes.
Many people believe that much of the U.S. national debt is owed to foreign countries like China and Japan, but the truth is that most of it is owed to Social Security and pension funds right here in the U.S. This means that U.S. citizens own most of the national debt.
But Japan's debt is different. It's mostly owed to the Japanese people in the form of government bonds. The Japanese government owes each of its citizens about 7.5 million yen. Since 95% of its debt is held domestically, its economy is not as precarious as it would be if it were debt to foreign countries.
1) Switzerland. It is no surprise to see Switzerland on this list. Switzerland is a country that, in practically all economic and social metrics, is an example to follow. With a population of almost 9 million people, Switzerland has no natural resources of its own, no access to the sea, and virtually no public debt.
Who is the US indebted to the most?
Japan and China have been the largest foreign holders of US debt for the last two decades. Japan and China held almost 50% of all foreign-owned US debt between 2004 and 2006. However, this has declined over time, and as of 2022 they controlled approximately 25% of foreign-owned debt.
Who owns this debt? The public owes 74 percent of the current federal debt. Intragovernmental debt accounts for 26 percent or $5.9 trillion. The public includes foreign investors and foreign governments.
The Japanese financial system has withstood a series of recent shocks including the COVID-19 pandemic, aided by strong capital and liquidity buffers and extensive policy support. Credit provision to the private sector has remained robust since the pandemic, supporting a steady economic recovery.
Despite being one of the world's richest nations, Japan has one of the highest rates of child poverty among the world's wealthy countries, with one in every seven children living in poverty. About half of single-parent households live below the poverty line.
Another key factor behind Japan's sluggish growth is stagnating wages that have left households reluctant to spend. At the same time, businesses have invested heavily in faster-growing economies overseas instead of in the aging and shrinking home market.
Foreign-Owned US Debt: An Overview
Among other countries, Japan and China have continued to be the top owners of US debt during the last two decades. Since the dollar is a strong currency that is accepted globally, holding a substantial amount of US debt can be beneficial.
Japan's relative credit weaknesses are: i) growth potential of the economy; ii) fiscal policy framework; iii) debt sustainability; iv) banking sector performance; v) financial imbalances; and vi) environmental factors.
The economy of Japan is a highly developed/advanced social market economy, often referred to as an East Asian model. It is the 4th-largest economy in the world by nominal GDP behind the United States, China, and Germany and the 4th-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP).
Japan's public debt stands at more than twice the size of its economy, by far the worst among industrial world. The latest estimate shows that the government will be saddled with record outstanding debt of 1,244.68 trillion yen at the end of March 2034.
Does Japan have debt to other countries?
Japan External Debt accounted for 106.9 % of the country's Nominal GDP in 2023, compared with the ratio of 104.1 % in the previous year. Japan External Debt: % of Nominal GDP data is updated yearly, available from Dec 2003 to Dec 2023.
Years of elevated budget deficits, exacerbated by massive federal spending during the COVID-19 pandemic, have taken the debt to historic levels: totaling more than $26 trillion in 2023, U.S. federal government debt is now at its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since World War II.
On January 8, 1835, President Andrew Jackson achieves his goal of entirely paying off the United States' national debt. It was the only time in U.S. history that the national debt stood at zero, and it precipitated one of the worst financial crises in American history.
US Treasurys Owned by China, in USD Billions
As of Oct. 2022, China owns $769.6 billion of the total $7,565 billion U.S. national debt.
Public and government accounts
As of July 20, 2020, debt held by the public was $20.57 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $5.94 trillion, for a total of $26.51 trillion. Debt held by the public was approximately 77% of GDP in 2017, ranked 43rd highest out of 207 countries.
References
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/11/successful-ways-government-reduces-debt.asp
- https://unacademy.com/content/wbpsc/study-material/polity/sovereign/
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/20/interest-debt-payment-treasury/
- https://apnews.com/article/poverty-japan-children-mothers-filmmaking-unmarried-2391ebf0bd955795195fbad25dd13348
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sovereignrisk.asp
- https://www.marketplace.org/2024/01/30/us-national-debt-34-trillion/
- https://ospi.k12.wa.us/sites/default/files/2023-10/sovereignty.pdf
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080615/china-owns-us-debt-how-much.asp
- https://homework.study.com/explanation/what-would-happen-if-the-u-s-actually-paid-off-the-national-debt-where-would-the-banks-big-financial-institutions-and-government-foreign-and-domestic-put-their-cash.html
- http://www.cadtm.org/spip.php?page=imprimer&id_article=13550
- https://www.itsuptous.org/blog/who-does-us-owe-money-to
- https://www.deccanherald.com/world/japan-s-debt-dilemma-and-its-balancing-act-2750760
- https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jerome-kerviel-most-debt-in-the-world_n_2077219
- https://www.worldfinance.com/strategy/government-policy/top-5-worst-defaults-in-history
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_United_States
- https://www.investopedia.com/updates/usa-national-debt/
- https://www.marketplace.org/2023/05/26/who-does-the-u-s-owe-31-4-trillion/
- https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-richest-countries-across-3-metrics/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Japan
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States
- https://www.quora.com/If-every-person-in-America-gave-each-other-one-dollar-would-that-be-enough-to-pay-off-the-entire-national-debt
- https://www.bu.edu/articles/2023/what-is-the-sovereign-debt-crisis-and-can-we-solve-it/
- https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/12/basics-what-is-sovereign-debt
- https://www.quora.com/Are-there-any-countries-that-have-never-been-in-debt-If-so-how-have-they-avoided-it-until-now
- https://www.preventionweb.net/understanding-disaster-risk/key-concepts/sovereign-risk
- https://people.howstuffworks.com/5-united-states-debt-holders.htm
- https://homework.study.com/explanation/what-problems-might-a-large-government-debt-cause.html
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/102413/why-and-when-do-countries-default.asp
- https://share.america.gov/sovereignty-what-it-means-and-what-it-doesnt/
- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/18/business/default-debt-what-happens-next.html
- https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/fixed-income/sovereign-debt/
- https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2023/10/6/when-does-federal-debt-reach-unsustainable-levels
- https://thelawdictionary.org/article/what-would-happen-if-the-us-treasury-goes-bankrupt/
- https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-countries-hold-the-most-us-debt/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_position_of_the_United_States
- https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-national-debt-dilemma
- https://www.pgpf.org/top-10-reasons-why-the-national-debt-matters
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling
- https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation?paperid=79094
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_debt
- https://www.scoperatings.com/ratings-and-research/rating/EN/175346
- https://www.bis.org/publ/work1099.pdf
- https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/japan/external-debt--of-nominal-gdp
- https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/10/why-the-national-debt-can-both-help-and-hurt-the-us-economy.html
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sovereignbond.asp
- https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/average-american-debt
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/051215/how-can-countrys-debt-crisis-affect-economies-around-world.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sovereign-debt.asp
- https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/andrew-jackson-national-debt-reaches-zero-dollars
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/090616/5-countries-own-most-us-debt.asp
- https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/sovereign-debt-crises-are-coming/
- https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-national-debt
- https://www.clearfinances.net/countries-without-public-debt/
- https://www.quora.com/Are-there-any-examples-of-countries-that-have-paid-off-their-national-debts-What-were-they-able-to-do-as-a-result
- https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/will-us-default-debt-jpmorgan-warns-odds-are-rising
- https://www.visualcapitalist.com/government-debt-by-country-advanced-economies/
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-government-interest-costs-seen-more-than-doubling-over-next-decade-draft-2024-02-02/
- https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-national-debt-grew-314-trillion-high/story?id=99429867
- https://www.gao.gov/americas-fiscal-future/federal-debt
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_sovereignty_in_the_United_States
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/retirement/debt-ceiling-impact-social-security/
- https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/fixed-income/sovereign-risk/
- https://www.itsuptous.org/blog/consequences-of-national-debt
- https://www.ljblegal.com/faqs/what-happens-to-social-security-disability-in-a-government-shutdown-.cfm
- https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/how-a-debt-default-could-affect-you
- https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/how-the-u-s-could-stabilize-debt-and-fuel-economic-growth/
- https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0911/7-things-you-didnt-know-about-sovereign-debt-defaults.aspx
- https://www.lingualift.com/blog/japanese-national-debt/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_credit-rating_downgrades
- https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/02/08/mcs020824-japan-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2024-article-iv-mission
- https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2023/05/the-federal-government-has-borrowed-trillions-but-who-owns-all-that-debt
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/the-risks-of-sovereign-bonds.asp
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_Japan
- https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/
- https://www.thebalancemoney.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124
- https://www.quora.com/Can-the-USA-pay-its-debts-by-just-printing-its-own-currency
- https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/nov/what-lessons-drawn-japans-high-debt-gdp-ratio
- https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/good-question-how-did-the-u-s-debt-get-so-high/
- http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-GRAPHIC/0100315H2LG/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040115/reasons-why-china-buys-us-treasury-bonds.asp
- https://www.pgpf.org/infographic/the-national-debt-is-now-more-than-34-trillion-what-does-that-mean
- https://www.forbesindia.com/article/explainers/top-10-largest-economies-in-the-world/86159/1
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/country-risk-for-international-investing.asp
- https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/happens-u-defaults-debt-143652479.html
- https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2022/brief/chapter-5-managing-sovereign-debt
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sovereign-default.asp
- https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2024-02-15/japan-slips-into-a-recession-and-loses-its-spot-as-the-worlds-third-largest-economy
- https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0306396804045516
- https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sovereign
- https://www.quora.com/How-much-does-Mexico-owe-the-United-States
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-20-countries-owe-us-175515001.html
- https://gfmag.com/data/richest-countries-in-the-world/
- https://apnews.com/article/japan-economy-2023-gdp-893d53deba654c4924e4924f0b321cc5
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Default_(finance)
- https://manifold.bfi.uchicago.edu/read/the-case-of-mexico