David Close on LinkedIn: Highest-ever wind yield … *and* worst wind yield since June 2017! (2024)

David Close

Centre Director | Energy | Gas | Research | Science | Policy

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Paul and WattClarity with a great summary of wind over the April-May period for this year (7.8% or so down on 2023) and capacity factor of ~23.1% - but year on year comparisons aren't that insightful when capacity is increasing so much. It follows their earlier article titled "Highest-ever wind yield … *and* worst wind yield since June 2017!"...get your head around that!Understanding how to treat weather forecasts, particularly during periods where demand could be high (i.e. outlier hot or cold conditions), is critical to planning how much variable renewable energy overbuild is required, how much storage and storage 'overbuild' is required, and how much gas (or other long duration energy storage) is required and where it's required. Anyone who's studied weather patterns will understand how hard this is when one can't just look at a monthly (or even weekly) aggregate.All part of the rich tapestry of challenges in energy transition research...https://lnkd.in/gDxe74-H

Highest-ever wind yield … *and* worst wind yield since June 2017! https://wattclarity.com.au

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  • David Close

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    Please share with year 3 and 4 undergraduates or any postgraduate students in your network that could be interested. State school applicants have had a great record in Queensland lately. And successful applicants have had a diverse range of degrees and outside interests. There is no stereotypical Rhodes Scholar so please encourage your people to apply - it’s a life changing opportunity. I’m happy to answer any questions for people curious in QLD or NT (or TAS or anywhere really).

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  • David Close

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    A good webinar recording if you're interested in social license and future fuels led by Katherine Witt and Dr. Amrita Kambo through the Future Fuels CRC. The project aims: Enhancing acceptance and social licence to operate of future fuel infrastructure through community engagement and deliberative processes.https://lnkd.in/gz4NHAiw

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  • David Close

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    Future Gas Strategy - bigger pictureShort StoryDespite all the hand-wringing, Labor's FGS is simply the next policy/statement in a long line of policies/statements/regs/laws that are all critical in successfully navigating the transition.The chances of averting shortages of gas WHERE and WHEN the demand occurs, that lead to electricity and heating shortages and catastrophic business interruptions, are ever decreasing. This is primarily a challenge for the southern states.The FGS is the first step of the total clarity of government that will be required, along with some industry fortitude and finance, to avoid gas shortages after Gippsland Basin's fields decline below critical thresholds. The time to address the challenge was yesterday, the next best time is now.Less Short StoryThe publication of the FGS has created a torrent of outrage in my LinkedIn feed from those opposed to (I presume) discussion about the role of gas. But the nature of the comments make me wonder, have those opposed…i) …read the whole FGS, or have they read only cherry-picked commentary from anti-gas organisations or individuals?ii) …intentionally set aside the totality of policy this government has progressed, that has (I would argue) been manifestly pro-renewable and anti-gas (and I concede these terms are subjective and a bit loaded, but no room in a LinkedIn post to explore in depth). iii) …read the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) proposal? The CIS proposes to contract around 32 GW of renewable generation, of which only around 9 GW is actually required to be dispatchable, that will have revenue floors underwritten by government (i.e. taxpayers). Unlimited (I think, happy to be corrected) financial risk being socialised. This is real financial support, i.e. not just verbal/symbolic support like that provided by the FGS.I'm not suggesting the CIS is or isn't good or bad - but to say the FGS somehow flips this government's clear intent to accelerate a higher penetration of renewable energy into the NEM is not backed up the realities of the CIS.There are so many other policies or statements beyond the CIS, from government or regulators/statutory bodies, that need to be considered when assessing the FGS - at a minimum the:a) AEMO Draft 2024 Integrated Systems Plan (ISP) - calls for 16.2 GW of GPG, andb) AEMO 2024 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) - calls out gas supply risks, andc) the DCEEW Electricity and Energy Sector Plan Discussion paper (March 2024).No one's interests are served if the south runs short of gas during peak demand days in the coming years. To avoid shortages, which to be clear will be very difficult, supply likely needs to be found somewhere that the existing pipeline network can get the gas to market. Otherwise, the medium-term solution is likely some combination of LNG import/storage.The FGS is needed, at a minimum, to help address this supply challenge. And no, a reservation policy doesn't help this challenge...

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  • David Close

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    Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) you're giving a very solid run to voices that are ideologically opposed to gas on ABC News this morning, and it's a fair bet based on the comments that the people speaking out haven't actually read the Future Gas Statement yet. I've heard senators and back-benchers on high rotation over the last hour and a half talking about a 'betrayal of the people' and 'need to expand renewables' - the latter is true, but that's what the ISP and Capacity Investment Scheme are all about. The ISP and GSOO need the FGS. All these plans need to be read as a whole. Perhaps you could give Minister King a modicum of respect by running some of her comments from yesterday at the release of the Statement.

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  • David Close

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    Lots of comments in my feed today about the release of the Future Gas Strategy (FGS). It keeps making me think of the old 80's jokes about New York Police firing twice then saying "freeze" - i.e. a bit back-to-front to intervene first (i.e. price caps and egregious market intervention power) and then research and deliver policy!If this government could map a path to NZE without gas, surely it would do so in a heartbeat. The December 2022 Intervention is not the hallmark of a captured government! I'll say more on the FGS once I've had a chance to read it thoroughly, but in the interim I wanted to re-share some independent, academic research from Paul Simshauser and Joel Gilmore that helps those not familiar with firming renewables why gas is so critical for successful high renewable penetration in the grid. It's timely research with the FGS release today. A couple of key quotes from the paper if you don't have time to read it:“Natural gas is an important fuel that currently provides a crucial ‘shock absorber’ to NEM coal plant exits, given the inherent intermittency of renewables...", and “...with few exceptions, all models, and all modellers, currently rely on gas turbines to balance power system demand in a manner that meets the over-arching energy policy objective function, viz. to minimise cost subject to reliability and CO2 emission constraints...”.chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://lnkd.in/gb_UD-VG

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  • David Close

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    Hello Network.I'm very pleased to share today that the Centre has formally become the "UQ Gas & Energy Transition Research Centre".A relatively small, but important step.I'm looking forward to engaging broadly across business, government, peak bodies, universities, community organisations and NGOs (and anyone else who wants to talk to us) as we strive deliver rigorous, independent research into the important (and often contested) space around all aspects of the role of gas in the energy transition.And, on a more general note, very pleased to say there was great leadership and administrative support from all parts of UQ to make this happen efficiently (a few people warned me my spirit may be broken by the process - happy this wasn't the case)!Thank you to, amongst a number of others:Sue Harrison, Professor Deborah Terry, Mark Blows, Caroline Stott, Elizabeth D. Alcantarino, Katherine Witt, Phil Hayes, Joe Lane, and Trent Leggatt.https://lnkd.in/gEPDcWHH

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  • David Close

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    Hello network - we're looking for someone to join the Centre and help us engage and grow. There is no shortage of stimulating research and the issues are highly relevant across the whole of society - the energy transition does not happen in research silos!Reach out if you have any questions and please share with people that have a passion for research, science communication, engagement, policy and the energy transition. Stay safe,Dave

    Manager, Research Engagement and Communications, Centre for Natural Gas, Facutly of EAIT The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia

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  • David Close

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    There's a research fellow position in the Centre to work with Dr Joe Lane and the team on some really interesting gas-powered generation and energy market research, modelling and analysis.Click through below or drop me a note if you have any questions.Stay safe.Dave

    Postdoctoral Research Fellow / Research Officer - Centre of Natural Gas, Faculty of EAIT The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia

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  • David Close

    Centre Director | Energy | Gas | Research | Science | Policy

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    Excited to be able to share the below. It’s an honour to follow Andrew and take up this important role at a critical time. I’m looking forward to working across UQ, our partners, and with the very broad range of interested stakeholders. Reach out if you want to know more about what we do. Stay safe. Dave

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David Close on LinkedIn: Highest-ever wind yield … *and* worst wind yield since June 2017! (33)

David Close on LinkedIn: Highest-ever wind yield … *and* worst wind yield since June 2017! (34)

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